My first time in geylang w/o protection

[LoverSon]

Originally Posted by peanut123

A hooker in Sg has less than 5% chance of being infected with HIV, which is a chance of 0.05. So your total likelihood of infection is 0.0005x0.05 = 0.000025, or 0.0025%, or 1 in 40000. By any measure, it's a very low chance, esp if it's a 1 time event.
.

Wow bro, not trying to be sarcastic here.. But, I feel encouraged by your words to do raw.

[owl888]

Btw, TS u cum inside her

[peanut123]

Originally Posted by LoverSon

Wow bro, not trying to be sarcastic here.. But, I feel encouraged by your words to do raw.

Really? If that's what you think, then you likely want to do so anyway and are just looking for an excuse. Low risk doesn't mean no risk. A 0.0025% chance is low, but if you make it a habit and do raw, say, once a week, then in a year, your chance of infection is 0.0025% x 52 weeks = 0.13%, which is a very significant risk. Still feel like doing raw?

[maxsee]

If the chances of HIV is so low...how come there is a huge increase in the number of HIV infections each year singapore...

[peanut123]

Originally Posted by maxsee

If the chances of HIV is so low...how come there is a huge increase in the number of HIV infections each year singapore...

1. Because "low" doesn't mean zero. Chance of dying in a plane crash is also extremely low, and yet hundreds of people die in plane crashes each year despite better and safer planes.

2. More people are getting tested and thus more cases are uncovered.

3. More people are getting more promiscuous, due to influence of the media, internet, wealth, etc. It's clear that teens are having sex much earlier than they used too 10-20 years ago, and with more partners. And adults who have more disposable income can have more commercial sex. If you have more sex(whether in terms of partners or sessions), your chance of catching something is corresponding higher.

[LoverSon]

Originally Posted by peanut123

Really? If that's what you think, then you likely want to do so anyway and are just looking for an excuse. Low risk doesn't mean no risk. A 0.0025% chance is low, but if you make it a habit and do raw, say, once a week, then in a year, your chance of infection is 0.0025% x 52 weeks = 0.13%, which is a very significant risk. Still feel like doing raw?

Thank bro for the maths, of course, no matter how much my small head is exploding in me, i will never let it rule it over my big head over life and death concerns or over my future.

Anyway, TS should be glad he have someone like you to give him some comforting news.

[SaMuRai1306]

better dont do raw again ts...go for a check up

[youngboy99]

Originally Posted by peanut123

Really? If that's what you think, then you likely want to do so anyway and are just looking for an excuse. Low risk doesn't mean no risk. A 0.0025% chance is low, but if you make it a habit and do raw, say, once a week, then in a year, your chance of infection is 0.0025% x 52 weeks = 0.13%, which is a very significant risk. Still feel like doing raw?

actually your calculation doesn't count because each time you have sex, it is an independent event therefore the risk doesn't stack up

therefore, unless you have having sex with 52 different woman at the same time, the percentage of infection is still 0.0025%

PS. i am in no way encouraging raw sex, but trying to clear up the maths

[kazaf85]

good luck to you bro!don't take such a risk next time!

[peanut123]

Events like these are known as Independent events, which have no memory, so yes, each time you have sex, the likelihood is the same when you only consider that one session. BUT, when looking at multiple sessions over time, the likelihood of getting an infection is much higher because you are no longer considering a single instance, but considering the likelihood of all instances for the entire period.

To use an analogy, if you flip a coin, the chance of getting a head on each toss is 0.5. But the chance of getting 2 heads in a row is no longer 0.5, but 0.5x0.5 = 0.25. See http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/proba...dependent.html or http://ekted.blogspot.sg/2006/10/pro...r-dummies.html for a quick intro.

So, in our HIV example, the likelihood of infection per session is (assumed) 0.000025, and therefore the chance of NOT getting infected is 1-0.000025 = 0.999975. In 1 year, having sex for 52 times, in order not to be infected, he has to have 52 consecutive chances of 0.999975, or 0.999975 ^ 52 = 0.9987.

Hence, the chance of getting infected is 1-0.9987 = 0.001299, or 0.1299%. I made an error in my previous post and calculated it incorrectly as 0.13%, but it was luckily close enough.

And to discourage bros even more, once you get into the habit of bonking raw, you will likely to keep doing it. If you keep it up for 4 years, your chance of infection rises to 0.52%, or greater than 1 in 200. Now that is a very scary likelihood.

Originally Posted by youngboy99

actually your calculation doesn't count because each time you have sex, it is an independent event therefore the risk doesn't stack up

therefore, unless you have having sex with 52 different woman at the same time, the percentage of infection is still 0.0025%

PS. i am in no way encouraging raw sex, but trying to clear up the maths

[SilverDragon]

Have u gone to DSC to check TS?

[LoverSon]

Originally Posted by peanut123

So, in our HIV example, the likelihood of infection per session is (assumed) 0.000025, and therefore the chance of NOT getting infected is 1-0.000025 = 0.999975. In 1 year, having sex for 52 times, in order not to be infected, he has to have 52 consecutive chances of 0.999975, or 0.999975 ^ 52 = 0.9987.

Hence, the chance of getting infected is 1-0.9987 = 0.001299, or 0.1299%. I made an error in my previous post and calculated it incorrectly as 0.13%, but it was luckily close enough.

And to discourage bros even more, once you get into the habit of bonking raw, you will likely to keep doing it. If you keep it up for 4 years, your chance of infection rises to 0.52%, or greater than 1 in 200. Now that is a very scary likelihood.

I totally understood your mathematics, I love maths during my schooling days

So anyway, on the opposite, What are the chances of getting HIV, and I'm directing only at infected by HIV and not other STDs, through PROTECTED sex, in this case here, I mean wearing a condom.

I'm sure with the answer you give, it will ENCOURAGE all bros here.

[youngboy99]

Originally Posted by peanut123

To use an analogy, if you flip a coin, the chance of getting a head on each toss is 0.5. But the chance of getting 2 heads in a row is no longer 0.5, but 0.5x0.5 = 0.25. See http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/proba...dependent.html or http://ekted.blogspot.sg/2006/10/pro...r-dummies.html for a quick intro.

i believe this is another misconception because if the flips are spread over wide enough(no pun intended), the odds of getting head(again no pun intended) or tail is still 50/50

for example

there are 2 of this dice that considers 1 million permutations
1 of the permutation is a head, all the rest are tails

dice A removes a chance every time it is thrown(999,998 tails, 1 head after the first throw)
dice B remains the same regardless of how many throws.

which dice would reflect our current hypothesis?

would it be A?
because the girl is ruled out of having any STDs whatsoever
or
B because the same girl is thrown back into the pool regardless due to her profession

[peanut123]

You might have misunderstood my explanation. Your assertion that getting a head is 50/50 is correct provided that we are only interested in the chance of getting a head on each flip. Over the long term, the flips will be 50% head and 50% tail. BUT, that's not what we are interested in. We are not considering merely whether we get head, but whether we get head *consecutively*. The key word is "consecutively".

If we take the analogy that a head = no infection, then for a bro to remain infection-free, he needs to always get head, and never a tail. At the beginning of his bonking career, a bro assesses his chance of getting a head on every flip of the coin throughout, say, the next 5 years. Not just the next flip, but all flips cumulatively from then till the end of 5 years. This is hardly a 50/50 proposition.

I think neither of your hypothetical dice is applicable, since the number of girls (infected and uninfected) changes constantly. Each visit would be to a WL that is chosen out of a set of ever-changing number of WLs.

Anyway, it's been decades since I did any statistics seriously, and I think most bros don't really care for it. What I'm trying to convey is that bros should avoid repeated reckless behavior. That's all bros need to know.

Originally Posted by youngboy99

i believe this is another misconception because if the flips are spread over wide enough(no pun intended), the odds of getting head(again no pun intended) or tail is still 50/50

for example

there are 2 of this dice that considers 1 million permutations
1 of the permutation is a head, all the rest are tails

dice A removes a chance every time it is thrown(999,998 tails, 1 head after the first throw)
dice B remains the same regardless of how many throws.

which dice would reflect our current hypothesis?

would it be A?
because the girl is ruled out of having any STDs whatsoever
or
B because the same girl is thrown back into the pool regardless due to her profession

[peanut123]

Logically, if the condom does not fail, getting HIV from protected sex is impossible (although doctors will advise you that nothing is 100% certain). HIV is "suspended" in human body fluids. Since fluids have no way of penetrating unbroken rubber, transmission is also impossible.

That said, there are also ways that body fluids can get onto your dick prior to putting on the condom, eg, she rubs her pussy against your bare dick, or she has a cut on her hand and she rubs your dick with her injured hand. Barring these freak events, HIV transmission from protected sex should be practically zero.

Things get more complicated with protected sex mixed with unprotected blowjobs (BBBJ). There is no reliable statistics on the transmission of HIV from BBBJ, simply because there are hardly any couples that practice BBBJ exclusively without actual sex. Therefore, any transmission in the study could be from BBBJ or sex, making the statistics useless. Most agree tat the chance of infection from BBBJ is way way lower than for sex.

If the condom fails ( which is not that common), the chance of transmission will be likely the same as unprotected sex.

Originally Posted by LoverSon

I totally understood your mathematics, I love maths during my schooling days

So anyway, on the opposite, What are the chances of getting HIV, and I'm directing only at infected by HIV and not other STDs, through PROTECTED sex, in this case here, I mean wearing a condom.

I'm sure with the answer you give, it will ENCOURAGE all bros here.